Polls

Never mind the top line.

Below is the most interesting in YouGov. Overall advantage Cameron on almost everything.

On the big 'gut' questions, clear Labour FAIL. Floating voters vote with their guts.

Hung parliament? No way on this earth. Substantial Tory majority.

Ignore TV voxpops with underclass-littoral-dwellers who can barely speak let alone think about a political decision. Hung Parliament? Those people won't vote.

The decider will be a substantial numbers of 'shy Blairite Labour'. They hate Brown, want him out, and will vote Tory.

In addition we will see a massive Labour stay-away, coupled with some defections to LibDem.

I had dinner tonight with two diehard Old Labourites who for the first time in their fairly long lives are campaigning - campaigning - for the LibDems. They also hate Brown, want him out, despair of their old party and and will vote to get Labour out but would never vote Tory.

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YOUGOV - Additional questions

Here are some things the Labour Party is promising it will do if it wins the coming election. In each case do your think they will keep or break their promise if it remains in government?

Not raise income tax rates Keep its promise: 27% Break its promise: 55% Don't know: 18%

Allow the people who run successful schools and hospitals to take over and run failing schools and hospitals Keep its promise: 39% Break its promise: 31% Don't know: 30%

Stop immigrants with poor English taking public sector jobs Keep its promise: 18% Break its promise: 60% Don't know: 22%

Make it easier to sack failing police chiefs Keep its promise: 24% Break its promise: 40% Don't know: 36%

Do you approve or disapprove of the Government's record to date? Approve: 24% Disapprove: 61% Don't know: 15%

Which of these would make the best Prime Minister? David Cameron: 31% Gordon Brown: 26% Nick Clegg: 12% Don't know: 30%

Which party do you think is more likely to run Britain's economy well - the Conservatives or the Labour Party? Conservatives: 36% Labour: 31% Neither: 23% Don't know: 10%

Here is a list of problems facing the country. Could you say for each of them which political party you think would handle the problem best? NHS Conservatives: 33% Labour: 28% Liberal Democrats: 13% Other: 2% None: 9% Don't know: 15%

Asylum and immigration Conservatives: 39% Labour: 17% Liberal Democrats: 12% Other: 7% None: 10% Don't know: 15%

Law and order Conservatives: 39% Labour: 23% Liberal Democrats: 10% Other: 3% None: 8% Don't know: 17%

Education and schools Conservatives: 29% Labour: 28% Liberal Democrats: 17% Other: 3% None: 8% Don't know: 15%

Taxation Conservatives: 31% Labour: 24% Liberal Democrats: 19% Other: 3% None: 10% Don't know: 15%

Unemployment Conservatives: 27% Labour: 27% Liberal Democrats: 12% Other: 3% None: 11% Don't know: 19%

Thinking about Prime Minister Gordon Brown, which of the following qualities do you think he has?

Sticks to what he believes in: 36% Strong: 22% Honest: 22% Good in a crisis: 20% In touch with the concerns of ordinary people: 18% Decisive: 15% A natural leader: 4% Charismatic: 2% None of these: 44% Don't know: 6%

Thinking about Conservative leader David Cameron, which of the following qualities do you think he has? Charismatic: 42% A natural leader: 25% Decisive: 22% Strong: 21% Sticks to what he believes in: 18% Honest: 18% In touch with the concerns of ordinary people: 17% Good in a crisis: 9% None of these: 29% Don't know: 12%

Thinking about Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, which of the following qualities do you think he has?

Honest: 30% In touch with the concerns of ordinary people: 26% Sticks to what he believes in: 21% Charismatic: 17% Decisive: 12% Strong: 9% A natural leader: 7% Good in a crisis: 4% None of these: 20% Don't know: 34%

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I wrote all this at PB.com earlier.